We are all too familiar with pronouncements from on high decreeing that by such and such a date FANTASTIC THINGS WILL HAPPEN. Decrees, rolling down like thunder from a governmental Mt. Olympus, proclaim that by a certain date our country will achieve carbon neutrality, all working poor will receive access to healthcare, high school graduation rates will increase, etc... The problem is, decreeing something does not make it so.
Take the case of electric vehicles. For years California has led the way in terms of environmental standards. As the most populous state with the largest market, California’s standards have an outsized influence over the automotive industry. In January of this year, California Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an executive order calling for the elimination of new internal combustion engines in passenger vehicles by 2035. Just days later Nissan, General Motors, and Ford came out with their own goals to become carbon neutral by at least 2050. In fact GM’s goal for carbon neutrality is 2035.
But not so fast . . . Just because something sounds cool doesn't make it feasible. In this country, electric vehicles count for a total of one percent of all cars on the road. How does the industry ramp up to replace the other 99 percent?
The 800-pound gorilla
The 800-pound gorilla in the room that EV enthusiasts do not talk about is rare earth metals. These metals such as neodymium, cobalt, and lithium are crucial in the manufacturing of EV motors. In a 2018 letter written by Richard Herrington, the head of earth sciences at the Natural History Museum in London, Professor Herrington underscores the impracticality of converting the UK fleet of vehicles to all-electric. In a nation of 68 million people it would take, “two times the world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three-quarters of the world’s lithium production and at least half of the world’s copper production . . .”
When you consider that the United States has almost five times the population of the UK this seems like an impossibility! I guess this conversion, if possible, would be great for Arizona’s copper industry. It seems contradictory, however, that many of the same environmentalists that wish for an all-electric future powered by clean energy would want to see an exponential increase in mining operations around the world.
And another thing . . . Did I mention that by far and away the leading producer of rare earth metals is China? That the leading producer of cobalt is the politically unstable Democratic Republic of Congo? That country produces 70 percent of the world’s cobalt and has suffered regime changes, civil wars and ethnic conflict.
98% less emissions
According to the EPA, modern gasoline-powered vehicles have 98-99 percent less tailpipe emissions than vehicles in the 1960’s. These improvements have led to higher air quality in America’s cities. No fuel will have zero environmental impact and that includes EV’s. Not only will mining copper and rare earth metals have an environmental impact, ramping up our country’s electrical generation will also have an impact.
In a report issued by the Goldman School of Public Policy affiliated with UC Berkley, this pro EV report admitted that electric generation will have to increase 90 percent by 2050 in order to make the transition. This transition cannot come from simply solar or wind power which currently makes up only 3.8 percent of our country’s total energy output. Most likely other sources of energy, fossil-based, will need to be used in order to supply the country’s expanded energy needs.
There is always hope
Tesla has started to produce a cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate battery in its made-in-China Model 3. Perhaps other workarounds exist, but lithium is also in short supply. The best approach may be an all-of-the-above diversity of choices. Such an approach makes the world less vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and a scarcity of resources. One should never under-estimate entrepreneurial ingenuity, but a governmental decree that dictates pigs flying by 2050 does not make it so.